Imports from China seen decelerating by 20% in the coming months: PHD Chamber

Demand for Chinese products in India is decelerating month after month and imports from the country would see a major hit in the coming months finds a survey conducted by PHD Research Bureau of PHD Chamber of Commerce and Industry.

Survey has been conducted in the various consumer and industry segments across the country and around 2000 responses were analysed from the consumption segment and more than 100 industry stakeholders participated in the survey study.

Demand for industrial products such as raw materials etc is declining by 10-15% and demand for consumption goods is less by 20-25% said the survey study.

Dr. Mahesh Gupta, President, PHD Chamber of Commerce and Industry said that Indian production capabilities are incasing and becoming competitive as compared with China because of many reasons such as improvement in the ease of doing business. Also, there is a significant shift in the consumption pattern of Indian consumers from the Chinese  products to domestic products.

India has been dramatically improving in all the global frontiers with its accomplishments in the Global Competiveness Index by moving 16 spots up to 39th place from 55th place earlier, Ease of Doing Business Ranking (130th) and improvements in goods market efficiency, business sophistication, and innovation which reflects there is a rising accentuation in global competitiveness of India, said Dr. Mahesh Gupta

India’s imports from China increased more than 500% from US$10bn to US$61bn during the last ten years from 2005 to 2015. China’s share in India’s imports increased from 7% in 2005 to around 16% in 2015 said the analysis by PHD Research Bureau.

However, the trend has been reversed and growth of imports from China decelerated by 8% in the first six months of the current financial year 2016-17.

The growth of imports from China has been decelerating and is in the negative trajectory in the recent months; no enthusiasm is seen in the upcoming months too.

Despite the festive season imports from China decelerated (-) 14.5% in the month of September 2016  whereas imports from World decelerated (-) 2.5%.

Majority of the decline in imports has been witnessed in products such as ships and boats, tobacco products, aquatic products, pearls and precious stones, musical instruments and parts thereof, mineral fuels and oils, lead and articles thereof, cocoa products, and wool and products thereof, further revealed the analysis.

Analysis highlighted the pivotal role of investments for the long term sustainable goals.

FDI inflows from China to India between April 2000 and March 2015 stood at USD 288.512 billion wherein China’s share was roughly 0.47% which rightfully indicates that China is not a significant and substantial investor in India as compared to Singapore, Mauritius and Switzerland.

As the Make in India programme is getting pace month after month, we can anticipate a significant improvement in the balance of trade with China, said Dr. Mahesh Gupta.